Based on the Evans ceramic wear failure model and bearing geometry model,a wear depth function model of Al2O3 ceramic plain bearings was established,and MatLab simulation program was compiled to determine the wear depth probability distribution function.The reliability model was established by combining the first-order origin moment and the second-order central moment with numerical integration method of the established wear depth function model,and the Monte Carlo reliability simulation method was used for verification.According to the reliability calculation and simulation values,the influence of different parameters on reliability was analyzed.The results show that the reliability decreases with the increase of working time,load and speed,and increases with the increase of bearing length.The reliability curve shows a trend of initial flat change,then rapid change,and finally flattening again.